Monday, January 26, 2009

One unexpected side effect of reading all the anti-Obama crap...

I mean the hardcore conspiracy Birther/supra-PUMA stuff, and I swear I'm moving past them, just noting, though:

While a lot of them are indeed right wingers, a fair number of them seem to have moved seamlessly from left-wing conspiracy tropes to the current ones wherein if they aren't right-wingers, they play them really well on TV. 9/11 Truthers, Bush stole the election(s), Black Box voting/Diebold means we'll never have a free and fair election again...the names and ideologies have shifted, but the ZOMG IT'S AN INCREDIBLY ELABORATE PLOT WE'RE ALL DOOMED is pretty consistent throughout, I notice.

And, okay. In 2004 or thereabouts, I read a lot of Democratic Underground and other such sites. While I obviously didn't have time for crap like "there were no planes on 9/11," or synchronized bombs or whatever the fuck (and yes, I had a few down the rabbit hole arguments on this with people I'd previously not tweaked were -that- ummm eccentric), at least some of it seemed somewhat...convincing. O.K., maybe the Chicken Little shit is a bit out of control, but yeah, the Diebold business--well, that is weird. So, Beverly Harris is -also- a bit weird, but there's probably -something- to all of it, right? We ARE really screwed, right? And--well, maybe Bush didn't KNOW beforehand, exactly, there is that whole PNAC business, and...yeah, okay, it's true that the final vote in 2004 was pretty solidly in line with most of the polls up till then, but dammit, it SHOULDN'T be possible that people would vote for the fucker AGAIN, there -must- be some mistake, and -everyone- knows THEY are so much more corrupt than we are, and, and...

and nothing, really. Listen, don't get me wrong: I haven't changed my politics. I don't think there's a damn thing benign about the way the Bush administration reacted to 9/11, and yeah, I think there was a fuckload of cynical opportunism. I do think people get disenfranchised in voting on at least some scale, and/or there's ballot-stuffing/dumping/tampering/whatever at least some of the time in some places; and yeah, it may well have made the difference in 2000, at least. And yeah, I think the Republican party, in its current incarnation at least, is a fucking cesspool, ideologically as well as ethically. (I make no claims for the sainthood of the Democrats--people like Blago are a great example of why not--but at minimum I feel slightly less cynical about them than I do the fuckers we just got rid of; which may just be a question of shiny newness, but otoh yes, ideology matters, and they're more or less -my- ratfuckers, more so than the R's, anyway, for now, like it or loathe it).

But...rightly or wrongly, I guess overall I'm now a bit more skeptical than I might once have been about -any- sort of "plot" talk. And yes, there IS Machiavellian shit in high places, no duh. I'm just not at all convinced that some random "experts" on the Internets have a better grasp of what is or isn't actually going down than, well, the rest of the world. Even if, next time, they DO happen to be more in line with my own beliefs. Wishing/fearing something doesn't make it so. And sometimes, Occam's Razor really does apply.


Kristen said...

Not to mention that its hard to keep up a good conspiracy these days. No matter how much Dick Cheney may try...there's always a mega book deal waiting for the first person who spills the beans.

Who knew there would be a silver lining to the current obsession with being famous/infamous?

belledame222 said...


ginmar said...

Boy, just imagine Dubya trying to keep a secret of that magnitude---pulling off 9/11. Jesus. The Secret Service probably has to help him pull his pants off, for Christ's sake.

And the 9/11 Truthers just keep me the fuck out. It's just another offshoot of the 'just world' hypothesis; the world is just and fair and everything has a reason, ergo, everything must have been executed by somebody. Conspiracy, in other words. It's both pathetic and sinister.

belledame222 said...

Yes, exactly. It's -comforting- to imagine the entire world is a conspiracy; at least that implies a certain degree of organization which, frankly, I am not at all convinced BushCo ever had.

and if that deer in the headlights look on 9/11 when they whispered what went down in his ear wasn't enough to convince...he's not an actor, among the many things he's not.

To be fair, I guess, most of the slightly less out to lunch theories weren't so much saying that Bush himself orchestrated it as that Cheney and/or others in the admin had prior information.

What I -do- buy is that it's just possible relevant information might've crossed his desk at one point, that someone more on the ball would've at least paid attention to; but he was too busy fucking off on his month-long vacation, and none of the people who actually did his reading for him picked up on it either.

I also buy that they were planning to turn it into an opportunity to invade Iraq pretty much from day one, as they'd been looking for an excuse already.

But as far as anything more supervillain--it's like, dude, if they were so fiendishly clever and able to plot things in advance like that, then how come they lost their ability to do any such thing so spectacularly in the years after? Look how he's going out, for heaven's sake. It's not that any one brilliant person or group brought him down a la Deep Throat; the whole enterprise just kind of dribbled to a close; they were -incompetent.- Which doesn't make them any more benign. Just not that smart. Even Rove's powers were limited to campaign dirty tricks; shit got way beyond them, in the end.

belledame222 said...

...I mean, technically, 9/11 WAS a conspiracy, right: it was a conspiracy orchestrated by Bin Laden and the people who carried it off, and/or some other people in the same loop. That's pretty much how such things usually work, though. The idea that it's this elaborate set-up between two supposedly opposed parties with everything planned out and executed according to plan...seriously, no.

The Birther people are hilarious that way, though. It's now gotten to the point where basically the governor or Hawaii as well as the Supreme Court (you know, all those radical leftists that are so in love with Obama) would have to be in on the plot; as well as people from several nations plotting the dirty deed from, well, pretty much since before Obama was -born-.

some people really needed to find a good fandom. Seriously, people always say that this is what happens when you watch too much TV; maybe it's what happens when you don't watch -enough- (good) TV, so you end up having to make up your own entertainment...

well, it's a theory. It makes as much sense as any of theirs...:P

Anonymous said...

A pretty good guideline is, "never ascribe to conspiracy what may be explained by incompetence".

although a few things I think did turn out to be conspiracy: the attempts to provide a cassus belli for invading Iraq were a clear conspiracy, and Tony Blair, Colin Powell et al were involved. But that one is again NOT a case of two supposed enemies working together (in fact, the suggestion that Iraq was behind 9/11 - made by the neocon warmongers, WAS a case of such a hypothesis...)

ballgame said...

they were -incompetent.-

That's debatable. If BushCo's overriding purpose was to continue the massive Reaganite transfer of wealth from the American middle class to a tiny coterie of already-rich Republican supporters, then he was spectacularly successful.

Unless and until there are claw backs of fraudulent earnings that shift the wealth back from investors who profited from Bush's rule, it would be grossly misleading to label him as 'incompetent'.

belledame222 said...

Well, that was certainly -a- goal, and yes, they did/are doing just fine, there. I was referring more to the goal, which the Republicans/neocons explicitly had, of turning their majority into an unbreakable monopoly for the forseeable future. Also, they really meant to set up shop in Iraq and proceed with the neo-colonialism smoothly from there, to universal acclaim; in that, they've failed rather miserably. No one's -won- or succeeded, mind you.

belledame222 said...

Privatize the profits, socialize the risks means that what happened will happen again.

Yes, that's a fair point.

I must admit that my grasp of macroeconomics is dismal at best. What exactly would a "claw back" entail?

belledame222 said...

Also, getting back to the point of the OP, I very much doubt that their -goal- was to have the WTC destroyed. That they capitalized off it with no return to the people who actually suffered is, I think, inarguable; still and all, I do believe that the attack happened in the first place largely because of their incompetence, yes.

ballgame said...

BD, I don't know exactly how a 'claw back' would work, but I can think of any number of things that might be used: perhaps a RICO-type forfeiture of assets derived from inaccurate or misleading accounting practices, or perhaps an extremely high retroactive tax on profits in past years in suspect industries, something along those lines? I don't know, exactly, but if somebody were to put me in chage, I'd be happy to figure something out! ;)

I started to respond to your neocon majority/Mideast failure comment, but after a few 'grafs I'd barely scratched the surface and I realized I'm not up for doing it justice at the moment.

However, as to your OP: basically, I disagree with it, but there are several fundamental issues confronting people like myself who harbor suspicions about the kinds of things going on behind the scenes when they tilt against pretty intelligent conspiracy naysayers such as yourself. The first issue is, you are absolutely right to believe there are a zillion crackpot conspiracy theories (and theorists) out there which are ridiculous. But it doesn't automatically follow that 100% of them are ridiculous. Logically, of course, the number of conspiracy theories that are true in regards to any particular incident must be either 0 or 1. So the 'best case' scenario for the 'Tinfoil Hat Team' is either 1 out of a 'zillion' or 0 out of a 'zillion' … not very good odds, from your perspective.

But it is also logically true that a zillion crackpot theories do not invalidate one good theory. A good theory can only be evaluated on its own merits.

That brings me to the second issue. If someone has credible grounds to question the official version of events, and information that supports that conclusion, they are confronted with a no-win double bind when dealing with a Casual Conspiracy Skeptic. Mr. Tinfoil Hat can talk in generalities — "The 9/11 Report was a bunch of lies! Bush did it!" — and CC Skeptic will (correctly) respond, "Yeah, sure, whatever you say, man" and dismiss him. Or Mr. Tinfoil Hat can talk in specifics — "The struts in the WTC were designed to withstand heats of over X degrees, and the jet fuel couldn't have possibly generated heat of more than Y degrees, so how could they have melted?" — and CC Skeptic will respond, "Dude, you know WAY too much about this, get a life, man, you're nuts" … and dismiss him.

In short, the structure of the rhetorical exchange appears to foreclose the possibility of legitimate fact-based discussion of the possibility of the Official Version of Events not being accurate. In light of the economic devastation confronting the country because it did NOT effectively question the Official Version of Events (in regards to the economy, in regards to Iraq, etc.), there appears to be something fundamentally wrong with that rhetorical structure.

ballgame said...

FTR, my take on this topic is colored not by 9/11 but by the Kennedy assassination. I don't have strong opinions about what did or didn't happen on 9/11, but I'm fairly well convinced that Oswald did not kill Kennedy, and would recommend David Lifton's Best Evidence for anyone curious to learn more about that quaint little historical incident.

belledame222 said...

I didn't say 100% were inaccurate. I'm saying that recognizing rhetorical patterns and even some of the same characters from among conspiracy theories/ists that are putatively on opposite sides of the political spectrum makes me a more cynical girl, overall.

as for the engineering business of 9/11--I am not an engineer, but I did sit witness to some long and patient dialogues between someone who was talking like that and a number of actual engineers. I can't speak to their rightness or wrongness, and I suppose one could call this an Appeal To Authority fallacy, but yeah, on the whole I took their POV more seriously than I did the Truther who was throwing around a bunch of regurgitated crap from websites he clearly didn't understand, and, more important, was evincing the same resistance to changing his mind that you do see as a common denominator among all the hardcore conspiracists:

they start with the premise and then look for evidence to support their conclusion.

belledame222 said...

excuse me, rather: they start with the conclusion, then look for evidence to support it.

Nick said...

Hey Belldame,

Long time no post.

A few thoughts on anti-Obamaism:

1. There was a statement by a Republican congressman that tagged Obama as a Marxian or Hitlerite dictator in the waiting. There is some resemblance between the policies of the Nationalist Socialist regime of Germany or the Soviet regime and Obama's policies. Of course, that was also true of George W. Bush and countless presidents before him. The celebrated executive strongman model transcends partisan divides or purportedly differing ideological systems. My own evaulation of Obama reads him as a centrist pragmatist. That's distateful to me, because I am a radical, but I wouldn't go so far as to call him a reincarnation of Adolf Hitler. That's grossly out of porportion.

Arthur Silber summarizes the one point you can make nicely:

"No need for straitjackets. NO, I do NOT think Obama is Hitler reincarnated. I must note, however, that his full embrace of the U.S.'s truly insane foreign policy of aggressive, non-defensive war is not precisely unHitlerian, just as his full embrace of corporatism bears a rather disturbing resemblance to aspects of Hitler's political program. But the same could be said of every major American politician."

That's the one conspriacy theory of sorts related to Obama that I can think of. I am not sure what you've been specifically reading. Something to do with a stolen election?

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